Market action was interrupted by various holidays around the world but overall the U.S. dollar continued to rebuild the momentum it had after the elections. The minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in November sent a strong signal about a December rate hike. The CME’s FedWatch tool is showing a 93.5 probability of a rate hike on December 14.
The USD is lower across the board versus major currencies as the U.S. election enters its final stretch. The FBI investigation into Secretary Clinton’s emails has eroded her lead in the polls and the battle for swing states will be crucial. The eyes of the world will be watching as votes start coming in on November 8.
This is a massive week for capital markets.
There are four central banks, including the Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) who will be keeping the various asset classes on their toes with their monetary policy announcements. None are anticipated to alter their current policies, but their noted intentions will have a lasting impact on asset prices. Perhaps, it’s a good time for the Fed to signpost a December rate hike?
The week of October 31 to November 4 will be one of the busiest on record. Central banks, employment and growth data will be published in the middle of the final stretch of the U.S. elections. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will release statements on late Monday EDT. The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement on Wednesday, November 2 at 2:00 pm EDT. The Bank of England (BoE) Super Thursday on November 3 will kick off at 8:00 am EDT. The week will wrap up with the release of the U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, November 4 at 8:30 am EDT.